VirtualSun short desk

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How well the model has held up

Said	Happened	Cases

What this desk shows. Every number here comes from a model that runs on a separate machine and writes its predictions to a database. This page does not compute a signal of its own — it publishes the model’s calibrated probability that a stock falls by the run’s drawdown threshold within its horizon, the rank that probability earns, and the per-stock driver contributions the model recorded. The other three desks score assets here from price history; this one does not, and the two kinds of number are not comparable.

The calibration panel is the point. A probability means nothing until you know what happened last time it was said. Every resolved prediction is bucketed by what the model claimed and compared against what actually occurred. Read that panel before the board: it is the model marking its own homework in public, and a bucket sitting well off the diagonal is telling you something the board cannot.

Predictions, outcomes and calibration: your own model, read through short.php from the database host. Nothing on this desk comes from a market data vendor.

Short selling can lose more than you put in. A long position can fall to zero and no further. A short position has no such floor: the loss grows with the price, without limit. Add borrow fees that accrue daily and can be repriced against you, the risk of a forced buy-in when the borrow is recalled, and squeezes that move violently against a crowded short, and a position that is right about the company can still be closed at a loss before the thesis plays out. A high probability here says nothing about any of that.

A probability is not a prediction, and it is not a recommendation. A stock given a 30% chance of collapsing is expected not to collapse roughly seven times in ten. If the model is well calibrated, being wrong most of the time on individual names is the correct behaviour, not a fault. Nothing here accounts for position sizing, borrow availability, your time horizon, or what you can afford to lose.

Not investment advice. VirtualSun publishes technical statistics computed from public price history. Nothing on this site is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any asset, an offer or solicitation, or personalised financial, legal, or tax advice. VirtualSun is not a broker, a registered investment adviser, or a financial adviser, and no adviser–client relationship is created by using it.

Scores describe the past, not the future. Every signal is a momentum and mean-reversion reading of prices that have already happened. It knows nothing about your position, time horizon, tax situation, or risk tolerance, and it can be wrong in either direction. Markets can move against any reading here without warning. Crypto assets in particular are volatile, largely unregulated, and can lose their entire value.

Data may be wrong, stale, or missing. Prices come from third-party providers, are cached, and — for funds — are end-of-day closes rather than live quotes. Everything is provided “as is”, with no warranty of accuracy or availability. Verify anything that matters against your broker before you act on it, and consider speaking to a licensed professional. Full terms.

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